“SHORTAGE OF ENERGY” or “LONGAGE OF PEOPLE”?
By
Jay Hanson, August 21, 2007
Click here to discuss
the issues raised in this paper http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/the_dieoff_QA
Longage is always soluble; a shortage may not be. – Garrett Hardin
There is a crime here that goes beyond denunciation.
There is a sorrow here that weeping cannot symbolize.
There is a failure here that topples all our success. – John Steinbeck
A specter is haunting developed countries, the specter of “peak oil.” If you were born after 1960, you will probably die of violence, starvation or contagious disease. This is because our genetic demand for more-and-more resources, within a physical environment of less-and-less “net energy”[1] available for those resources, will inevitably lead to widespread violence and global nuclear war.
Geologists have calculated that global oil production [2] and North American natural gas production [3] are peaking about now. American coal is expected to peak about 2035.[4] No alternative – even nuclear [5] – has the potential to replace more than a tiny fraction of the power presently generated by fossil fuels.
America was specifically designed by special interests (e.g., General Motors, Firestone and Standard Oil) to require fossil fuel and automobiles [6] to be viable. The exhaustion of fossil fuel will leave many millions of Americans with no access to food or water and facing certain death. For example, ten or more millions of people in Southern California alone will die within a couple of days after drinking their toilet tanks and swimming pools dry.
Since it’s literally impossible to increase global net energy production, the only approaches which can mitigate this problem are national – to either increase national net energy, or reduce national energy demand, or both. The primary goal of American public policy should be to minimize the suffering [7] of as many American citizens as possible by delivering basic “needs”[8] gratis. Unfortunately, our democratic [9] form of government can not direct us to any specific goal because it is “process politics” instead of “systems politics”:
“As the name implies, process politics emphasizes the adequacy and fairness of the rules governing the process of politics. If the process is fair, then, as in a trial conducted according to due process, the outcome is assumed to be just – or at least the best the system can achieve. By contrast, systems politics is concerned primarily with desired outcomes; means are subordinated to predetermined ends.”[10]
Indeed, all measures that our present government takes to mitigate our problems will make them even worse! [11] Since our present government can not direct us to any specific goal, the first step in mitigation must be to invent a new systems politics. In other words, dump our present “special interest” government in favor of a new “common interest” government based on a new set of values:
“In brief, liberal democracy as we know it – that is, our theory or ‘paradigm’ of politics – is doomed by ecological scarcity; we need a completely new political philosophy and set of political institutions. Moreover, it appears that the basic principles of modern industrial civilization are also incompatible with ecological scarcity and that the whole ideology of modernity growing out of the Enlightenment, especially such central tenets as individualism, may no longer be viable.”[12]
The closest example in our experience was the country on a war footing during World War Two when our economy was directed towards the specific goal of winning the war. Moreover, even if the entire economy were directed towards developing renewable energy supplies, it would be a significant challenge to avoid anarchy because energy available for consumer goods could fall to about 30% of demand:
SHORT-TERM NATIONAL STRATEGIES
What
becomes of the surplus of human life? It is either,
1st. destroyed by infanticide, as among the Chinese and Lacedemonians; or
2ond it is stifled or starved, as among other nations whose population is
commensurate to its food; or
3rd it is consumed by wars and endemic diseases; or
4th it overflows, by emigration, to places where a surplus of food is
attainable. – James Madison, 1791
Once a new form of government is in place, the following nine strategies would provide a start towards mitigating the net energy shortfall:
1) Increase our fraction of global net energy (divert energy from competitors) directly by military action.
2) Increase our fraction of global net energy economically by increasing asset values (e.g., pumping-up the stock market and real estate prices).
3) Reduce energy demand by eliminating unnecessary [13] economic activity.
4) Reduce energy demand by reducing human population levels (e.g., closing our borders, deporting as many as possible and discouraging births).
5) Plant “Victory Gardens” throughout the country.
6) Heavy funding for basic energy research.
7) Pollution control rollback, streamline permitting (no EIS, etc.) for alternate energy. No more permits for fossil fuel power plants. No more funding for roads. No more building permits except in special cases.
8) Full-on conservation, local energy production to minimize grid vulnerabilities, and a crash alternate energy production program. (Conservation will help under a government that limits economic activity).
9) Free mass transit.
ASSUMPTIONS
REALPOLITIC: Practical Politics
In liberal democracies, students are taught “political ideology” not “realpolitik”. So unless one actually experiences it, one has no idea how our so-called “democracy” actually works. I have experienced, observed, and studied politics for fifteen years and have distilled its main systemic features into a few short pieces. If you want to know how I reached my conclusions, study the following papers which explain most of my assumptions:
THE FOUNDING OF AMERICA: A Government By, For, and Of Special Interests - http://www.warsocialism.com/founded.htm
A BASIC IDEA OF HOW OUR GOVERNMENT WORKS - http://www.warsocialism.com/democratic.htm
UNIVERSITY-TRAINED LIARS - http://www.warsocialism.com/economic.htm
SOCIETY OF SLOTH: A Thought Experiment - http://www.warsocialism.com/unnecessary.htm
THERMO/GENE COLLISION: On Human Nature, Energy, and Collapse - http://www.warsocialism.com/thermogenecollision.pdf
CENTRAL BANKERS CAN NOT PRINT ENERGY!
Sixty percent of oil and gas financial executives believe that global oil reserves have already “peaked”.[14] If that is so, it is now impossible for central bankers to increase global economic growth (as measured by physical activity – not GDP) because global net energy will fall for many decades into the future!
Imagine having a motor scooter with a five-gallon tank, but the nearest gas station is six gallons away. You can not fill your tank with trips to the gas station because you burn more than you can bring back – it’s impossible for you to cover your overhead (the size of your bankroll and the price of the gas are irrelevant). You might as well put your scooter up on blocks because you are “out of gas” – forever.
If a country must spend more-than-one unit of energy to produce enough goods and services to buy one unit of energy, it will be impossible to cover the overhead (e.g., Zimbabwe). At that point, every country’s economic machine is “out of gas.” Money and common stocks become worthless – forever.
Desperate political leaders will do what they always have done – what they evolved to do – fight to the death over the remaining energy resources:
“Do you believe,” said Martin, “that hawks have always eaten pigeons when they have found them?” “Without doubt,” said Candide. “Well then,” said Martin, “if hawks have always had the same character, why should you imagine that men have changed theirs?” “Oh!” Said Candide, “there is a vast deal of difference, for free will…”
